{"id":2091,"date":"2020-11-26T20:47:35","date_gmt":"2020-11-27T01:47:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pappost.com\/?p=2091"},"modified":"2020-11-26T20:47:39","modified_gmt":"2020-11-27T01:47:39","slug":"de-la-sterilisation-des-interventions-de-la-banque-centrale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pappost.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/26\/de-la-sterilisation-des-interventions-de-la-banque-centrale\/","title":{"rendered":"De la \u00abst\u00e9rilisation\u00bb des interventions de la Banque centrale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par M\u00e9dy D\u00e9siral, \u00c9conomiste<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire international (SMI) consid\u00e8re deux grandes cat\u00e9gories de r\u00e9gime de change : le r\u00e9gime de change fixe et le r\u00e9gime de change flottant. Dans le premier, la valeur de la monnaie domestique est arrim\u00e9e \u00e0 celle d\u2019une devise qualifi\u00e9e de monnaie d\u2019ancrage. Dans ce cas-ci, le prix de la monnaie nationale par rapport aux autres (le taux de change) est \u00e9tabli de fa\u00e7on discr\u00e9tionnaire par les autorit\u00e9s mon\u00e9taires. Dans le second, \u00e0 savoir le r\u00e9gime de change flottant ou flexible, le cours de la monnaie nationale fluctue par rapport aux autres suivant les jeux du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La majorit\u00e9 des pays industrialis\u00e9s laissent flotter leurs monnaies (free floating). Certaines \u00e9conomies adoptent un flottement administr\u00e9 sans la pr\u00e9d\u00e9termination de bandes de fluctuations du taux de change (dirty floating). D\u2019autres, \u00e0 partir d\u2019importants avoirs de r\u00e9serve dont elles disposent, font tout carr\u00e9ment le choix d\u2019un r\u00e9gime de change fixe avec parfois une organisation \u00e0 cr\u00e9maill\u00e8re, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire en \u00e9tablissant un cheminement pr\u00e9d\u00e9termin\u00e9 du taux de change. Quelques-unes n\u2019ont tout simplement pas de monnaie propre mais adoptent celle d\u2019une autre \u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LIRE AUSSI: D\u00e9gringolade de la gourde: \u00ab\u00a0Pour revaloriser la gourde, il faut corriger les politiques \u00e9conomiques\u00a0\u00bb, propose Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric G\u00e9rald Ch\u00e9ry<\/a><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 une telle organisation du SMI, celui-ci est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme \u00e9tant un syst\u00e8me hybride. On parle alors de r\u00e9gime de flottement impur. En effet, m\u00eame dans les r\u00e9gimes de change flottant, les banques centrales proc\u00e8dent assez r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement \u00e0 des interventions sur les march\u00e9s de capitaux en achetant ou en vendant des actifs (des devises par exemple) afin d\u2019influer sur la dynamique du taux de change. Ainsi, au sein de l\u2019\u00e9conomie ha\u00eftienne dans laquelle pr\u00e9vaut un r\u00e9gime de change flottant, les autorit\u00e9s mon\u00e9taires interviennent fr\u00e9quemment sur le march\u00e9 des changes en vue de corriger certaines distorsions du march\u00e9 ou de lisser les fluctuations du taux de change. \u00c0 cet \u00e9gard, nous allons produire quelques remarques sur la nature et les effets de quelques interventions de la Banque de la R\u00e9publique d\u2019Ha\u00efti (BRH) de mars \u00e0 novembre 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u2019entr\u00e9e de jeu, il y a lieu de pr\u00e9ciser que les op\u00e9rations open market [op\u00e9rations d\u2019achats ou de ventes d\u2019actifs (de devises) par la banque centrale dans le cadre de la politique mon\u00e9taire] ont des effets sur l\u2019offre de monnaie domestique. La vente de devises (de dollars par exemple) par la Banque centrale entra\u00eene une diminution de l\u2019offre de monnaie. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, l\u2019achat de devises par celle-ci entra\u00eene un accroissement de l\u2019offre de monnaie. Toutefois, la Banque centrale peut neutraliser les effets de ses interventions sur l\u2019offre de monnaie en effectuant des op\u00e9rations oppos\u00e9es (en achetant ou en vendant des titres financiers \u2013 des obligations de l\u2019Etat ha\u00eftien par 1 exemple). C\u2019est ce que la litt\u00e9rature \u00e9conomique appelle des \u00abinterventions st\u00e9rilis\u00e9es\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LIRE AUSSI: Ha\u00efti s\u2019effondre !<\/a><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Dans cette perspective, il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que dans le cadre des derni\u00e8res interventions de la BRH, le m\u00e9canisme susmentionn\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re un peu invers\u00e9e, sous une forme un peu diff\u00e9rente. \u00c0 ce propos, en mars dernier, la Banque centrale a pris un train de mesures en vue de maintenir la liquidit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie face aux risques que pr\u00e9sageait la crise de la Covid-19. En effet, elle a abaiss\u00e9 de 5 points de pourcentage le coefficient de r\u00e9serves obligatoires sur les passifs libell\u00e9s en gourdes pour les banques commerciales et les filiales non bancaires. Ce coefficient \u00e9tait pass\u00e9 de 45% \u00e0 40%. Celui des banques d\u2019\u00e9pargne et de logement a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 diminu\u00e9 de 5% passant de 33.5% \u00e0 28.5%. Par ailleurs, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats sur les bons BRH ont tous \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9s \u00e0 la baisse. Celui appliqu\u00e9 sur les bons \u00e0 maturit\u00e9 de 91 jours a \u00e9t\u00e9 diminu\u00e9 de 500 points de base pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 10%. Ceux \u00e0 maturit\u00e9 de 7 jours et 28 jours ont \u00e9t\u00e9 diminu\u00e9s de 100 points de base pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 4% et 6% respectivement. En outre, le taux de mise en pension a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9duit de 500 points de base lui aussi, passant de 22% \u00e0 17%. Notons que de telles mesures, \u00e0 savoir la r\u00e9duction des coefficients de r\u00e9serves obligatoires et la diminution des taux directeurs de la BRH, sont de nature \u00e0 favoriser une variation haussi\u00e8re de l\u2019offre de monnaie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parall\u00e8lement, quelques mois plus tard, soit en ao\u00fbt 2020, la banque des banques avait annonc\u00e9 des interventions hebdomadaires sur le march\u00e9 des changes en vue de renforcer l\u2019offre de dollars. Au moment de cette annonce, il \u00e9tait pr\u00e9vu que le cumul de ces interventions atteigne 150 millions de dollars sur le reste de l\u2019exercice fiscal 2019-2020. Au bout du compte, sur les deux derniers mois dudit exercice, les ventes brutes de dollars par la Banque centrale ont atteint la barre des 164 millions de dollars. De surcro\u00eet, les op\u00e9rations de ventes de devises par la BRH se poursuivent jusqu\u2019au premier trimestre de l\u2019exercice en cours. Soulignons que de telles interventions sont de nature \u00e0 entra\u00eener une compression au niveau de l\u2019offre de monnaie domestique et donc \u00e0 \u00e9ponger une partie de la liquidit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. \u00c0 ce sujet, suivant la note de politique mon\u00e9taire du quatri\u00e8me trimestre de l\u2019exercice 2019-2020, les ventes de dollars r\u00e9alis\u00e9es entre ao\u00fbt et septembre ont permis de neutraliser environ 16 milliards de gourdes de liquidit\u00e9. Cependant, il y a lieu de signaler que les d\u00e9cisions prises \u00e0 la fin du mois de mars ont, de par leur essence, favoris\u00e9 une st\u00e9rilisation pr\u00e9alable des effets des injections de devises effectu\u00e9es \u00e0 partir de la semaine du 10 ao\u00fbt 2020. Ainsi, les interventions de la BRH sont, \u00e0 juste titre, des \u00abinterventions st\u00e9rilis\u00e9es\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e9anmoins, il s\u2019av\u00e8re n\u00e9cessaire de mentionner que concomitamment aux op\u00e9rations \u00abopen market\u00bb survenues \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019exercice \u00e9coul\u00e9, il s\u2019est produit une surr\u00e9action du taux de change (overshooting) d\u00fbe \u00e0 une inversion de la psychologie du march\u00e9. C\u2019\u00e9tait un v\u00e9ritable squeeze financier, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire une sorte d\u2019\u00e9tranglement qui force la liquidation de certaines positions. \u00c0 l\u2019oppos\u00e9 de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de, depuis quelques semaines, nous observons une reprise de la tendance \u00e0 la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation de la gourde par rapport aux principales devises. Une telle situation, \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 des restrictions impos\u00e9es par les institutions financi\u00e8res sur la quantit\u00e9 de devises vendues, renforce les interrogations sur la r\u00e9silience et la profondeur du march\u00e9 des changes en Ha\u00efti. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que la politique mon\u00e9taire doit se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler \u00abforward looking\u00bb (prospective), probablement les interventions de la Banque centrale au tout d\u00e9but de cet exercice servent \u00e0 limiter les variations irr\u00e9guli\u00e8res du taux de change et une d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation future plus accrue de la monnaie nationale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LIRE AUSSI: Le processus d\u2019inclusion financi\u00e8re en Ha\u00efti \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve de la concentration du march\u00e9 bancaire<\/a><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

S\u2019il est vrai que le taux de change constitue l\u2019une des courroies de transmission de la politique mon\u00e9taire, il n\u2019est pas pour autant un indicateur de d\u00e9veloppement. En tout \u00e9tat de cause, la stabilit\u00e9 des prix (y compris le taux de change) est un objectif macro\u00e9conomique qui, lorsqu\u2019elle est atteinte, g\u00e9n\u00e8re des incidences positives sur la dynamique de d\u00e9veloppement d\u2019une \u00e9conomie. Tenant compte du fait que la solution aux taux de change ne saurait \u00eatre strictement mon\u00e9taire et que le dysfonctionnement que conna\u00eet le march\u00e9 des changes depuis quelque temps est un \u00e9piph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne, l\u2019\u00e9conomie ha\u00eftienne, n\u00e9cessite-elle vraiment d\u2019une politique mon\u00e9taire qui court sans cesse apr\u00e8s le taux de change ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1 Krugman, P. et al. (2015). Economie Internationale. (10e \u00e9dition). Paris: Pearson France. Page 525.
2 Un point de base correspond \u00e0 un centi\u00e8me de point de pourcentage. Ainsi, 100 points de base \u00e9quivaut \u00e0 1 point
de pourcentage (1%).
3 La mise en pension est le fait par lequel une institution financi\u00e8re obtient \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court-terme des liquidit\u00e9s aupr\u00e8s de la banque centrale contre remise de titres. En ce sens, l\u2019institution financi\u00e8re en question \u00ab met ses titres en pension \u00bb pour pouvoir acc\u00e9der \u00e0 une certaine quantit\u00e9 de liquidit\u00e9 dans un d\u00e9lai assez court. Le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat qui s\u2019applique sur de telles op\u00e9rations est d\u00e9nomm\u00e9 \u00ab taux de mise en pension \u00bb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par M\u00e9dy D\u00e9siral, \u00c9conomiste Le syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire international (SMI) consid\u00e8re deux grandes cat\u00e9gories de r\u00e9gime…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[104,33],"class_list":["post-2091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","tag-gourdes","tag-haiti"],"yoast_head":"\nDe la \u00abst\u00e9rilisation\u00bb des interventions de la Banque centrale - 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